Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Gains After Tech Stocks Rise on Wall Street, BoJ Eyed
Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Japan Rate Decision, Australia Export Prices – Talking Points
- Australian Dollar gains overnight as tech stocks gain on Wall Street
- Japan set to release interest rate decision, quarterly outlook report
- AUD/USD trades within a Rising Triangle below major resistance
Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Forecast
Asia-Pacific markets look set for a modestly upbeat trading session after technology stocks surged in Wall Street trading overnight. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index gained nearly 1% on the close as big names such as Tesla, Alphabet and Amazon charged higher. A string of positive earnings results have investors shifting capital into the high-beta stocks. The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar is benefiting from the risk taking, with AUD/USD tracking for a third daily gain.
Meanwhile, oil prices moved lower after the prospect for more supply dragged on sentiment. Iran and the European Union are set to revive talks on the 2015 nuclear deal before December. A hard date is expected some time next week. Both sides have a mutual interest in returning Iranian oil to markets amid surging prices. WTI crude oil prices fell over 2% overnight.
Today’s session will see retail sales and foreign bond investment data out of Japan cross the wires. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision will follow, no set release time is given, but the BoJ has tended to cross the wires around 3 GMT this year. The BoJ’s quarterly outlook report will accompany the interest rate decision. Analysts expect no change to the benchmark rate, which is currently set at -0.1%. The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision in Thursday’s European trading session.
Australian third-quarter import and export prices are also due out today. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Guy Debelle will give a speech where traders will key in over any language on rate hikes. Earlier this week, a hot inflation print for the third quarter boosted RBA rate hike bets. The Q3 quarter-over-quarter CPI crossed the wires at the highest level since 2015. The Aussie Dollar is benefiting from those increased rate hike bets.
AUD/USD Technical Forecast
AUD/USD has formed an Ascending Triangle pattern over the past week, with prices gently gaining alongside a rising trendline forming triangle support. Upside resistance just below the 0.7550 level may continue to pressure prices as the triangle’s intersect approaches. A downside break would see a quick test of the rising 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Overall, the broader trend looks supportive.
AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart
Chart created with TradingView
— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter